Although the deadly explosion that destroyed a
Brazilian rocket Aug. 22 dealt a severe and painful setback to Brazil’s
cash-strapped space program, the country remains dedicated to developing its own
launch system and must accept the risks that accompany such an endeavor,
Brazilian officials said.
While the country’s space budget is tight, there is
currently no reason to conclude that the accident on the Alcantara launch pad
could have been avoided if the government had provided more funding, Jose
Viegas, Brazil’s defense minister, said. The Ministry of Defense has overall
responsibility for the Veiculo Lancador de Satellites (VLS) rocket program.
“No country in the world has developed a space
program without accidents,” Viegas said, according to a transcript of remarks he
made Aug. 26. “The best homage that we can make to the deceased of Alcantara …
is to continue with the program.”
The 21 people killed in the accident -- some of
whose bodies were so badly burned they had to be identified using dental
records -- died while working for the “progress of the country,” Viegas
added.
Speaking Aug. 25, Viegas said the team working on the
rocket would not have gotten within three days of the planned Aug. 25 launch if
there had been reason to believe the VLS project was underfunded. Brazil’s space
program “does not have abundant resources. We all know this,” he said Aug. 25.
“[But] the resources cannot be considered insufficient, because if they were, we
would not have [gone ahead] with the launch” preparations. The defense ministry
provided Space News with Portuguese transcripts of Viegas’ Aug. 25 and Aug. 26
remarks.
Brazil has tried without success to launch a rocket
since the first VLS mission, in November 1997, ended when the rocket veered off
course shortly after liftoff and had to be destroyed by remote control. A second
launch attempt two years later also failed. The planned Aug. 25 launch was to
have been Brazil’s third try at becoming the first South American country to
send its own launch vehicle into space.
Viegas said it would take about 30 days for
investigators to determine what caused one of the engines on the VLS rocket to
accidentally ignite when the vehicle was still several days away from launch.
Two science satellites were destroyed when the rocket blew up and its launch pad
collapsed.
The four-stage VLS design, based on Brazil’s Sonda
sounding rocket program of the 1960s and 1970s, is intended to carry payloads
weighing up to several hundred kilograms to low Earth orbit, according to the
Brazilian Aeronautics and Space Institute’s Internet site.
Brazil is continuing to discuss using the Alcantara
base to launch Ukrainian rockets, a proposal that has been under consideration
for some time, Viegas said. The remote coastal facility in northeast Brazil is
located close to the equator, making it an ideal launch site for satellites
destined for geostationary orbit. The closer a launch pad is to the equator, the
greater the payload capacity of rockets launched from it.
The VLS disaster represents yet another
disappointment for Brazil’s space community, which recently lost out on a chance
to contribute a module to the international space station when money for the
project ran out. Brazil had intended to provide NASA with a pod for experiments
to be attached to the exterior of the station.
Funding for any sort of space-related projects is
likely to be scarce for the foreseeable future because Brazil must carefully
control spending to comply with the terms of a multibillion-dollar aid package
granted in 1998 by the International Monetary Fund, said Lincoln Gordon, a
Brazil analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
“Brazil is firmly committed to having a sizeable
budget surplus, so they have to be very tight on budgetary matters,” said
Gordon, who served as U.S. ambassador to Brazil in the 1960s and later became
U.S. assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs.
While new Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da
Silva has “quite an ambitious agenda,” he is unlikely to risk Brazil’s economic
stability to accomplish his goals, Gordon said in an Aug. 28 telephone
interview. “I think Brazil’s reforms are here to stay.”
Analysts said there probably will be little, if any,
impact on the global satellite and launch businesses from the VLS accident. The
VLS rocket is designed to loft only small payloads, so it would not pose
competition for the majority of rockets, such as Europe’s Ariane 5 and the
United States’ Atlas 5.
“The significance of the VLS is to Brazil. They want
to be able to launch future government satellites without procuring launch
services from another party,” said Rachael Villain, a launch market analyst at
Euroconsult in Paris.
Brazil already operates its own satellite
manufacturing facilities, under the auspices of the country’s National Institute
for Space Research (INPE), “and there is logic in launching domestic satellites
on domestic launches,” Villain said in an Aug. 28 telephone interview. INPE
spacecraft have been launched on Chinese and U.S. rockets.
Villain compared Brazil’s efforts to launcher
projects in India and Japan, which have sought to deploy domestically
constructed spacecraft on their own rockets.
While those countries have made progress in
developing rockets, neither one plays a significant role in the global launch
business, she said. “When you link a domestic satellite program to a domestic
launch capability, there is always a mismatch.”
Even if Brazil is able to successfully launch a
future VLS rocket, the country would have a hard time convincing potential
customers to place their satellites on the launcher, said Marco Caceres, senior
analyst at Teal Group Corp. in Fairfax, Va.
“If they’re able to launch successfully, it will be
considered a fluke,” Caceres said Aug. 27. “I imagine that they’ll continue the
program from the standpoint of national pride, but if they tried to compete
[with other launchers], you’d have to wonder.”