PARIS Bandwidth-hungry high-definition television, a modest growth in satellite broadband and above all the need to replace aging telecommunications fleets will lift the satellite manufacturing industry out of its deep recession starting this year, industry officials told the "World Satellite Business Week" opening session here Sept. 8.

With 10 satellites already ordered this year and another two or three expected by years end, 2003 already is better than 2002, during which just three new satellites were ordered.

By 2005 or 2006, pent-up demand due to the need to replace old satellites will drive the total closer to 20 satellites, a figure that should be stable for several years, officials said.

"Starting in 2005, demand will exceed current capacity, so we will see new orders starting right about now," said Jim Simpson, vice president for business development at Boeing Satellite Systems of El Segundo, Calif.

Roger J. Rusch, president of the TA Group, a California-based consultancy, said high-definition television (HDTV) and, to a lesser extent, Internet use will be the two new applications helping to lift demand.

Rusch said the rich detail of HDTV will require three times as much satellite capacity per program as todays television signals. Even with improvements in digital compression, that figure will remain at twice the bandwidth of current programming, forcing operators to make new satellite orders, Rusch said. Rusch said the number of commercial satellite transponders should grow by 4.5 percent annually in the next 10 years.

None of the officials here predicted a return to the go-go years of the late 1990s when 30-odd satellite orders were made each year. "We are reasonably optimistic for a slow recovery, but theres no going back to the old days," said Philippe Balaam, marketing director for the Arianespace launch services consortium of Evry, France.

Jean-Francois Charrier, head of telecommunications satellite marketing at EADS Astrium of Europe, a satellite builder, said no more than 15 satellites are likely to be ordered in either of the next two years. But by 2006, annual orders should reach 20 large telecommunications satellites.

Patrick Fuhrmann, director of satellite equity research at ABN AMRO investment bank, said satellite operators have survived the telecommunications downturn. In part because they have kept recent orders for new spacecraft to a minimum, these companies are facing a period of relatively low capital expenditures and high cash flow.

What will these companies do with their mounting piles of cash? Fuhrmann said paying cash dividends is a likely result. "If the first quarter of this year is an indication, it appears the worst [of the market collapse] is behind us," Fuhrmann said.