WASHINGTON The worlds launch service providers plan another banner year of commercial rocket flights in 2000, according to the latest manifests released by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration.

Makers of Delta 3, Proton and Titan boosters that failed during 1999 are expected to mount a recovery early in the new year.

A Titan 4 is planned to launch in late January for the first time since twin failures last April. The Boeing Delta 3 is also expected to mount a spring 2000 return to flight following back to back failures in 1998 and 1999. And a long delayed Atlas 3 powered by a Russian-built rocket engine is expected to fly during the year.

And while the rocket makers are sending their customers into orbit, the U.S. government is expected to release its first major new space policy of the millennium, a plan that preserves the future of the rocketbases in Florida and California.

According to the FAA Office of Commercial Space which regulates the U.S. part of the launch industry, 19 orbital launches are planned in the first quarter of 2000 alone. Of these nine are to be flown by U.S. rockets.

In my discussions with them, (launch service providers) have explained the numerous steps they are taking to assure that these problems dont repeat themselves in 2000 and beyond."

Russia is set to resume Proton flights partially halted by an October 1999 explosion. A remote sensing satellite is to be lofted by a Cosmos rocket, two Protons may fly, and A Soyuz may carry a crew to the International Space Station. Europe is to mount six Ariane 5 and eight Ariane 4 launches during 2000, with both types of launchers planned for missions during the first quarter.

The Sea Launch floating Cape Canaveral project plans five to six launches in 2000, with their first near the end of the first quarter of the year. India is also planning a major step in commercial space during 2000, with the first test flight of their Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) carrying a prototype communications satellite.

But all of the rosy predictions are based on a recovery from last years failures. Will there be such a return to success?

"Absolutely," says Clayton Mowry of the Satellite Industry Association. "Last year was difficult because of an unprecedented number of vehicle failures as well as problems with satellites." His association represents the largest users of commercial rockets.

"Launch service providers have gone to great lengths to review their design engineering, manufacturing, and operations," he said. "In my discussions with them they have explained the numerous steps they are taking to assure that these problems dont repeat themselves in 2000 and beyond."

But he also suggested that a greater threat to space profits loomed in the stricter controls imposed by the U.S. State Department on satellites being exported. As a result of the stricter controls started in 1999, satellite makers must apply for several different licenses to conduct international space business.

"Many people dont understand that satellite manufacturers must now apply for a series of licenses," he said.

"A typical launch campaign now requires several more licenses, including technical assistance agreements just to hold basic discussions between satellite makers and launch providers," Mowry explained. This includes such basic data as to how to attach the satellite to the nose of the rocket.

Mowry also said that satellite makers were worried about the coming policy debate concerning launch quotas. Space launch agreements signed by the U.S. with Russia, China and the Ukraine expire in 2000. These agreements, negotiated by the Bush administration and continued under the Clinton White House, place limits on the number of commercial rockets that can be sold by these Communist or former Communist states.

Called "Rules of the Road," the agreements also require the foreign rocket makers to abide by a price structure that protects U.S. rocket companies from so-called "dumping" of the foreign rockets into the commercial market at cut rate prices.

Mowrys group is worried that continuation of quotas will hamper the joint ventures between Russia, the Ukraine and U.S. aerospace firms like Boeing and Lockheed Martin.

"This situation could erode the successful relationship between these companies and their partners," said Mowry. "And may ultimately cause those partners to turn to more reliable European companies."

The future of the spaceports in Florida and California may be determined by a White House review that is likely to be released early in 2000. Ordered by President Clinton last May and staffed by the White House National Security Council and Office of Science and Technology Policy, the study looked at how to divide the responsibility for operating Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg Air Base. The two sites are the main U.S. launch bases.

Clintons review is expected to propose a new commercial operator be established for the sites. Military bases are increasingly used by commercial industry. In 1998 for the first time, commercial users of Cape Canaveral exceeded government rocket launches. The trend is expected to accelerate in 2000 and in the next decade.

The new plan will also seek to establish a structure by which industry and the government will share the costs of modernizing the launch ranges. Several of the tracking radars used at the sites have not been upgraded in more than four decades. In one case, the radar system still uses vacuum tubes in its equipment.

In sum, 2000 is expected to continue the commercialization of space and especially the business of launching satellites.

The FAA forecasts an average of 51 commercial launches worldwide each year from 2000 through 2010. Between 1999 and 2010 the FAA projects 1,369 payloads will be launched into orbit. Revenue from commercial rockets licensed by the FAA now exceeds $1.2 billion in annual sales. From January 1995 to March 2000 total commercial launch revenues are expected to top $10.9 billion, with U.S. rocket makers achieving a 39 percent share of that amount.