The new strategy essentially abandons an ongoing initiative for a "light" rocket -- the Vega project lead by Italy -- in favor of an alternate medium-size rocket design capable of lifting small- and medium-size satellites. According to analysts, such a launcher should offer a better profit-making potential on the world market.
The specifics of the new concept have not been publicly announced, but it is clear that last week’s initial talks at the Council meeting mark a new direction of research into a complementary rocket to the Ariane 5. To reduce costs, European space strategists will direct their engineers to incorporate some elements of the new Ariane 5 in the future model. More details should be defined at the next ESA Council, set for June.
"We definitely need a range of different rockets because Ariane 5 cannot respond to all the [satellite market] needs," said Jacques Rossignol,
chief operations officer at the French-European launch site. "Some elements of Ariane 5, like its P 230 booster equipped with an upper stage, could be used in a medium-class launcher." Rossignol suggested. He cautioned that no engineering or design decisions had been made yet. Arianespace has no formal status at the ESA Council but the launch service company is in a good position to evaluate the future needs of the market.
Since last summer, representatives from the different ESA countries had been split over whether to continue funding the Italian-led design, which has a maximum lifting capability of putting a 1 ton payload into low orbit. Last May, they allocated a $42 million engineering grant. But last week's decision will apparently mean the abandonment of the Vega project by ESA.
Antonio Rodota, ESA director general, minimized the differences that had broken out within the agency over future rocket-launcher designs. "At this point," he told SPACE.com, "the small polemic between Italy and France on this issue has been surpassed and everybody agrees on a global broader strategy. But to take specific decisions [on what to do] takes time."
For the last few months the two countries were opposed in a dispute regarding the continuation of the Vega project. France had decided to withdraw its 30 percent share in the program, arguing that Vega rockets would not be competitive with other small rockets already in production -- like Russia's Rockot. In retaliation for what it perceived as France's effort to monopolize the European launch industry, Italy also decided in October 1999 to withdraw from the ESA programs to upgrade the actual Ariane 5.
According to several participants in the ESA Council, Italy has not yet decided to rejoin the program that is working toward the upgrade of the Ariane 5 rocket. ESA will be spending $529 million this year on that design project. But some expect last week's decision to bring a peaceful resolution to differences over future strategy.
The next generation of satellites weigh 3.5 tons each or more, making them too large for two of them to fit within Ariane 5's payload limit of 5.9 tons for geostationary orbit, the most popular position for communications satellites. But their small size makes using the powerful Ariane 5 not very cost-effective.
Last week on March 21st, in front of ESA Council delegates, an Ariane 5 demonstrated for the first time its dual-satellite launch capability. But by 2002, to face the growing mass of commercial satellites, an Ariane 5’s capacity should rise to 10 tons, and 11 tons by 2005, in order to keep Arianespace competitive in the cutthroat international launch market where it leads currently with a 50 percent plus share.
Right now, Europe can rely on three operational commercial launchers. Two are Russian and only one is totally European:
- The heavy-lift Ariane 5, which is being progressively introduced in parallel with the phasing out of the Ariane 4 -- the highly successful workhorse of privately-operated Arianespace.
- The Russian Soyuz, which is a medium-size rocket that has been commercialized by the French-Russian launch company Starsem. In 2001, its upgraded version should be capable of launching 4.5 tons into low orbit from the Baikonur Cosmodrome.
- The small Russian-designed Rockot vehicle. Based on Russia's SS 19 strategic missile, it is designed to launch satellites weighing 550 to 3,900 pounds (250 to 1,800 kilograms) into polar low orbit. Formed in 1995, Eurockot Launch Services GmbH is a joint venture between Krunichev of Moscow and Germany's DaimlerChrysler Aerospace.
According to ESA strategists, a new medium-size European launcher would help Europe to be more independent from Russian space hardware.